Game Schedule Date: Saturday Dec 24, 2011
 


By Scott Garbarini, NFL Editor


(Sports Network) - The San Francisco 49ers have already earned themselves a
place in the upcoming NFC playoffs, while the Seattle Seahawks are making a
strong case for proving they belong in the tournament with an outstanding
recent stretch.


The surging Seahawks try to continue their belated push in Saturday's
divisional bout with the NFC West champion 49ers, who head to CenturyLink Field
for this key Week 16 divisional matchup with designs on capturing a coveted
postseason bye.


San Francisco enters the season's final two games tied with New Orleans for the
NFC's No. 2 overall seed, which guarantees an off week in the first round of
the conference playoffs, but currently holds the edge on the Saints by virtue
of a superior conference record. A victory over the Seahawks, coupled with a
New Orleans loss to fellow contender Atlanta on Monday, would secure the 49ers
a spot in the top two.


Obtaining that win could be tough to come by, however. Seattle has experienced
a dramatic turnaround over the second half of this 2011 campaign, ripping off
victories in five of its last six games after a rough 2-6 start. The Seahawks
return home riding a season-high three-game winning streak in which they've
scored 30 or more points on each of those occasions.


A playmaking defense and hard running from feature back Marshawn Lynch has
carried Seattle back into the playoff mix, though seizing a Wild Card berth
still remains a long shot. Trailing both Atlanta and Detroit by two games in
the standings, the Seahawks will have to win both this week's tilts and at
Arizona while both the Falcons and Lions lose both their remaining tests.


Lynch has rushed for over 100 yards in five of the last seven weeks and has
scored a touchdown in a franchise record 10 consecutive games, but was held to
a mere 42 yards on 20 carries in last weekend's clash at slumping Chicago. His
limited output was offset by another opportunistic performance by the defense,
however, with Seattle scoring 21 points off five Bears turnovers en route to a
38-14 rout.


Lineman Red Bryant and cornerback Brandon Browner both had interception returns
for touchdowns in the second half as the Seahawks outscored Chicago by a 31-0
margin after the break. Seattle now has amassed a league-best 18 takeaways over
its six-week tear and scored three defensive touchdowns over its last three
outings.


"The turnaround has been remarkable," said Seahawks head coach Pete Carroll.
"[Turnover margin] is absolutely the number one thing in our philosophy of how
to play the game for us. It's all about the ball. The guys are doing it.
Really, I think we've had two turnovers in the last four games on offense. That
is big-time execution and discipline and focusing on the things that are really
important to winning ball games."


Carroll's charges will now try to continue that success against a San Francisco
outfit that tops in the NFL with a plus-25 turnover ratio, while Lynch will be
facing a rugged 49ers defense that's yielding a league-low 71.5 rushing yards
per game and hasn't allowed an individual 100-yard rusher in 36 consecutive
contests.


San Francisco, which also leads the league in fewest points allowed (13.2 ppg),
was a force on that side of the ball once again in Monday's 20-3 ousting of
playoff-bound Pittsburgh. The Niners held the Steelers to 287 total yards and
induced four turnovers, including three interceptions of a hobbled Ben
Roethlisberger.


The 49ers also allowed just 219 total yards and had three takeaways in a 33-17
triumph over the Seahawks at Candlestick Park in the season opener, with Lynch
managing only 33 yards on 13 attempts.


SERIES HISTORY


The Seahawks hold a slight 13-12 edge in their all-time series with San
Francisco, with the teams having split the home-and-home set in each of the
past three seasons. Seattle has come out on top in the last two meetings held
at CenturyLink Field, following up a 20-17 win in 2009 with a 31-6 shellacking
of the Niners in Week 1 of the 2010 season. San Francisco last prevailed in
Seattle via a 33-30 overtime shootout in 2008 and hasn't swept the Seahawks in
a season since 2006.


San Francisco's besting of the Seahawks back in September marked the first time
that Carroll and 49ers head coach Jim Harbaugh faced one another in an NFL
game, but the two went head-to-head three times in the college ranks when
Carroll was at the helm of USC and Harbaugh at Stanford. Harbaugh's Cardinal
won two of those encounters, including a 24-23 upset of the then-No. 2 ranked
Trojans in 2007 that snapped USC's 35-game home win streak.


Carroll, once San Francisco's defensive coordinator from 1995-96, is 2-2
against his onetime employer as a head coach. The first of those victories
came in 1998, when he was then in charge of the New England Patriots.


WHEN THE 49ERS HAVE THE BALL


The San Francisco offense isn't renowned for its explosive qualities, having
averaged a modest 307.4 total yards per game (25th overall) on the season, but
the Niners run the ball well and keep mistakes to a minimum, as evidenced by
the team's NFL-low total of 10 turnovers. Quarterback Alex Smith (2752 passing
yards, 16 TD) has been intercepted only five times in his 14 starts and
displayed sound decision-making under center, and the former No. 1 overall
draft has two good targets to throw to in talented wide receiver Michael
Crabtree (59 receptions, 2 TD) and physical tight end Vernon Davis (55
receptions, 6 TD). San Francisco's game plan is usually centered around running
back Frank Gore (1119 rushing yards, 7 TD, 16 receptions), however, with the
five-time 1,000-yard rusher serving as the bell cow for a ball-control attack
that's fifth in the league in run attempts and averages 125.0 yards per game on
the ground (9th overall). The Niners do have some issues to sort out prior to
the playoffs, as the team ranks next-to-last in third-down conversions (29.3
percent) and 30th in red-zone touchdown percentage (37.5 percent). San
Francisco has also given up 39 sacks as a team, though Smith wasn't taken down
at all by the Steelers on Monday.


Count on Gore being in line for another heavy workload this week, as the
Seahawks have been simply stifling against enemy quarterbacks during their
current hot stretch. Seattle has allowed a scant 151.3 net passing yards over
its last three games, albeit against a questionable crop of signal-callers, and
recorded nine interceptions over that span after snaring four against the
wayward Bears. The 6-foot-4 Browner (47 tackles, 6 INT, 20 PD), who had spent
the previous five seasons toiling in the CFL, has come up with five picks over
the last four weeks as the big-play specialist of a young secondary that's also
gotten strong play out of second-year safety Kam Chancellor (79 tackles, 1
sack, 4 INT) and rookie corner Richard Sherman (44 tackles, 3 INT, 14 PD),
while linebackers David Hawthorne (95 tackles, 1 sack, 3 INT) and Leroy Hill
(80 tackles, 3 sacks) and nose tackle Brandon Mebane (47 tackles) head up a
quality run-stopping group that's limited the opposition to an average of 3.7
yards per attempt on the year. The Seahawks haven't been great at pressuring
the passer, though disruptive end Chris Clemons (40 tackles, 11 sacks) has
reached double digits in sacks for a second straight season and fellow veteran
Raheem Brock (25 tackles, 3 sacks) is coming off a two-sack outburst against
Chicago.


WHEN THE SEAHAWKS HAVE THE BALL


Seattle has hitched its offensive wagon squarely to Lynch (1011 rushing yards,
24 receptions, 12 total TD) over the season's second half, and the powerful
back has certainly delivered with five 100-yard efforts while garnering 20 or
more carries in seven straight weeks. It will interesting to see if those plans
change against San Francisco's stout run defense, which would place more
responsibility on quarterback Tarvaris Jackson (2706 passing yards, 12 TD, 12
INT). The offseason addition has overcome a shaky early start with three
consecutive solid showings in which he hasn't had an interception, and his 19-
of-31, 227-yard effort against the Bears with Lynch not much of a factor was
perhaps his best one this year. A revamped receiving corps has been paced as of
late by second-year wideout Golden Tate (27 receptions, 3 TD) and undrafted
rookie Doug Baldwin (46 receptions, 3 TD), a former pupil of Harbaugh at
Stanford who came through with 83 yards and a score on four catches in these
teams' first meeting. He's questionable for Saturday's game, however, after
hurting his ankle in last Sunday's win. The offensive line has seen its share
of injuries as well, with three opening-week starters done for the season, and
the unit permitted five sacks to the Niners in September and a concerning 42
over the course of the year.


Lynch and Seattle's rebuilt line will both have their work cut out for them
against San Francisco's sensational front seven, which may have All-Pro inside
linebacker Patrick Willis (93 tackles, 2 sacks, 12 PD) back in the fold this
week after missing the last two games with a hamstring strain. His presence
alongside young counterpart NaVorro Bowman (121 tackles) and high-motor lineman
Justin Smith's (50 tackles, 6.5 sacks) ability to anchor are the main reason
why the 49ers are surrendering a league-low 3.3 yards per carry to opposing
backs. The defense will give up some yards through the air, with Roethlisberger
compiling 330 passing yards in a losing cause on Monday, but possesses two
excellent ball-hawks in cornerback Carlos Rogers (37 tackles, 6 INT, 17 PD) and
free safety Dashon Goldson (61 tackles, 6 INT) and rarely breaks within the red
zone, with the Niners allowing an NFL-best 34.5 percent touchdown rate inside
their own 20-yard line. San Francisco also sports one of the game's premier
young pass rushers in rookie standout Aldon Smith (31 tackles), who's generated
13 sacks in 14 professional games, while Justin Smith and outside linebacker
Parys Haralson (28 tackles, 2 sacks) both got to Jackson twice back in Week 1.


KEYS TO THE GAME


Quarterback play. With Lynch likely to find plenty of clogged lanes against the
San Francisco defense, Jackson's going to have to be more than merely a
caretaker for the Seahawks to continue their streak and must continue to be
careful with the football. While Alex Smith has flourished in essentially a
game-managing capacity of his own for the 49ers, the formerly-maligned
quarterback's numbers are noticeably better at home than on the road, and he'll
be going up against a Seattle secondary that's much improved from when these
teams last met.


Turnovers. The matchup between San Francisco's incredibly judicious offense and
a Seattle defense that's been the best in the league at causing mistakes over
the second half is maybe the most intriguing one of this game. The Seahawks are
5-1 this season when winning the turnover battle and 0-4 when coming out on the
negative side of the ledger, and their three giveaways to the 49ers in the
opener was a contributing factor to that loss.


Special teams. One of the stars of the Week 1 showdown between these clubs was
49ers return man Ted Ginn Jr., who took back both a kickoff and a punt for a
touchdown in the fourth quarter of San Francisco's victory that day. He's
doubtful to suit up this week due to a sprained ankle, however, which takes
away one of the team's valued weapons.


OVERALL ANALYSIS


With the way both these defenses have been performing, anything other than a
low-scoring struggle would be a surprise. If that's indeed the case, San
Francisco's longstanding issues of converting in the red zone and sustaining
drives could very well come into play here, and the NFC West champs have lost
two straight nail-biters on the road in large part because of missed
opportunities. While Lynch stands a very good chance of being neutralized in
this game and Seattle's protection problems are a big concern, the Seahawks'
defense should be able to keep them in it until the end. And if it's able to
continue its trend of coming up with game-changing plays, that could very well
tip the scales in favor of a home team that's quietly been playing playoff-
caliber ball for quite some time now.


Sports Network Predicted Outcome: Seahawks 16, 49ers 13